TAIPEI, Taiwan — For decades, Taiwanese leaders have performed a delicate dance of defending Taiwan’s sovereignty while not provoking Beijing. Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te is changing that.
Taiwan warns of growing Chinese threat, partly to secure Trump’s support
President Lai Ching-te is pushing boundaries, risking an angry response from China at a time when it’s not clear whether the United States will step in to help.
March 21, 2025 The Washington Post
By Lily Kuo
All of this risks angry retaliation from Beijing, which has been ramping up threats to seize Taiwan by force if it does not come willingly — and it comes at a time when it’s not clear whether the United States, Taiwan’s main military backer, would step in to help.
“We are moving toward conflict escalation with China, that’s for sure,” said Chong-Han Wu, a professor in the department of diplomacy at National Chengchi University. “And China? They will respond for sure to all of Lai Ching-te’s strategies and comments.”
In a fiery speech, Lai said Chinese infiltration — from recruiting members of the military as spies to ordering Taiwanese celebrities to echo Beijing’s view — had reached new levels. “By its actions, China already satisfies the definition of a ‘foreign hostile force,’” he said last week. “We have no choice but to take even more proactive measures.”
It was the first time a Taiwanese president had addressed the issue of Chinese interference so publicly and boldly, analysts said. Lai’s 17-point plan to address the national security threat appeared partly aimed at Taiwanese voters as his party encourages them to recall opposition lawmakers who dominate the legislature.
But there is another important audience: China hawks in President Donald Trump’s administration.
“The announcement of the plan was likely also an attempt to secure more support from the Trump administration and to rally support for Lai and the DPP,” said Amanda Hsiao, China director for the Eurasia Group, referring to Lai’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party.
“Taiwan wants to highlight for the U.S. the dangers it continues to face from China, and the proactive steps it is taking to defend itself,” she said.
The U.S., while not a formal diplomatic ally, is Taiwan’s most important partner, offering political and military support in the form of weapons, training and intelligence sharing. The long-standing U.S. policy of “strategic ambiguity,” which leaves unclear whether the U.S. would militarily intervene to stop a Chinese takeover, is seen as crucial for deterring Beijing.
Under Trump — who recently suspended U.S. military support for Ukraine to force Kyiv into a ceasefire deal with Russia — that ambiguity is now even more pronounced.
Trump has said that Taiwan — which, like Ukraine, lives in the shadow of a much bigger neighbor with territorial ambitions — should “pay us for defense.”
When asked last month whether Trump would adhere to the long-standing U.S. policy that China should not take Taiwan by force, Trump refused to comment. The president’s nominee for undersecretary of defense for policy, Elbridge Colby, said earlier this month that Taiwan should be spending “more like 10 percent” of its GDP on defense.
Taiwan purchased $26 billion in weapons from the U.S. over the past eight years, Taiwan’s de facto ambassador in Washington, Alexander Tah-ray Yui, told the Wall Street Journal last month.
The U.S. president’s transactional approach has unnerved many in Taiwan, home to 23 million people who are subject to near-daily incursions of Chinese fighter jets, drones and military vessels crossing or nearing the median line, an unofficial sea border in the 110-mile-wide strait.
Some fear Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, whom Trump has repeatedly called a “good friend,” might use Taiwan as a bargaining chip in a trade deal — just as he is trying to do with Ukraine in his dealings with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.
Xi, China’s strongest leader in decades, has said “reunification” with Taiwan is “inevitable,” even though Taiwan has never been ruled by the Chinese Communist Party.
Jason Hsu, a former legislator in Taiwan and senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said Lai’s remarks may have been timed to preempt talks between Xi and Trump, who has claimed a meeting will happen in the “not too distant future.” (Beijing has not said anything publicly about a meeting.)
“It’s to show that Taiwan is taking self-defense seriously and that Taiwan is also committed on intelligence affairs,” Hsu said.
Taiwan’s Defense Ministry on Tuesday released a security plan for the next four years that called the U.S. a “crucial strategic partner,” especially in reconnaissance, long-range precision strike capability and military hardware. The ministry pledged to cooperate more with the U.S. in intelligence sharing and improving the “interoperability” of the two countries’ armed forces.
The military on Monday launched five days of “rapid-fire” exercises to practice mobilizing in the event one of China’s drills turns into an attack.
In his speech, Lai also pledged to crack down on espionage in the military by bringing back military courts, which, according to analysts, can more swiftly and severely dole out punishment.
“He’s definitely tougher, but he’s trying to find a new narrative to deal with China without risking escalation,” Hsu said.
Preventing escalation will be difficult. Beijing has refused to engage with Lai, having branded him a “dangerous separatist.” And over the past two years, China has ramped up its pressure campaign, sending fighter jets and naval vessels, as well as merchant ships and drones, close to Taiwan’s various islands. This is viewed as a tactic to strain Taiwan’s military and psychologically exhaust the Taiwanese people.
Although Lai has said that he is committed to maintaining the status quo, following a strategy of “neither yield, nor provoke,” he has subtly but significantly pushed boundaries.
During his inauguration last year, Lai repeatedly referred to “China,” underlining the idea of Taiwan being separate from China. His predecessors more often referred to “mainland China” or “Beijing authorities” to avoid directly challenging Beijing.
“He went even further in his own inauguration speech, and now he’s calling China a foreign hostile force. The question is: Is that in Taiwan’s interest?” said Bonnie Glaser, an analyst at the German Marshall Fund in Washington, who said she agreed with Lai’s measures but was concerned Beijing’s reaction could cause a spiral of retaliation, escalating tensions.
“I think Lai is right to call attention to the way that China has ramped up efforts to sow discord in Taiwan society and sow a sense of psychological despair. It poses a threat to Taiwan in ways that very few people talk about,” she said.
The Lai administration says the speech was not meant to be a departure from the status quo, but simply a plan for dealing with national security threats from China.
Last year, authorities prosecuted 64 people for spying for China, more than half of whom were active or retired military members. One recent case involved a retired lieutenant general who is accused of forming a paramilitary cell to help Chinese forces in the event of a takeover.
“In response to China’s persistent infiltration ... defending ourselves is not an act of provocation,” said a spokesperson for Taiwan’s presidential office, Wen Lii.
“China is taking advantage of Taiwan’s open society to sow division and engage in subversion,” he said.
Some say Lai still could have gone further.
“Our legal framework has major loopholes — whether in national security or trade secrets, it remains too weak,” said Kuo Yu-jen, a professor at National Sun Yat-sen University and an adviser to Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council, which handles cross-strait relations. “I actually think defining China as a hostile foreign force is not strong enough.”
Kuo and other analysts said they expect more retaliation from China, but that uncertainty over how the Trump administration will react will act as a restraint.
After Lai’s speech, Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, called Lai a “crisis maker” and “destroyer of cross-straits peace,” adding that he was pushing Taiwan toward the “perilous brink of war.”
China on Monday sent 59 fighter jets and nine naval ships on sorties in the Taiwan Strait, in what Chen said was “resolute punishment” for Lai’s remarks. Still, analysts said Beijing’s response was relatively muted.
“Beijing’s response probably had Washington in mind,” said Hsiao of the Eurasia Group. “China likely does not want to close the door to a potential Xi-Trump summit and a deal that could help it weather the Trump years.”
Pei-Lin Wu contributed to this report.